Verdict
New York open · 12 EMA on Nasdaq
By Thomas Jamais (Backtestd) · Published · Updated
Does new York open · 12 EMA on Nasdaq work?
No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 28 versions of it on 1 market from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 96% of the versions lost money. The few positive versions are what luck alone produces when you try many settings.
Key facts
| Versions tested | 28 |
|---|---|
| Markets | 1 |
| Period | 2022-11-11 → 2025-07-09 |
| Candles | 15m |
| Costs | fees, slippage and funding on every trade |
| Versions that lost money | 96% |
| Verdict | No edge after costs |
In short
We coded the rule, tested 28 versions of it on 1 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 96% of the versions lost money. The few positive versions are what luck alone produces when you try many settings.
The rule people share
As it is usually explained:
Explained: the terms
- Nasdaq, 15-minute candles — This is the Nasdaq, one candle every 15 minutes.
- 09:30: New York opens — At 9:30, New York opens. The first candle sets the direction.
- The 12 EMA — The 12 EMA: the average of the last 12 candles, recent ones count more.
- Close above: buy — First candle closes above the 12 EMA: buy. Below it: sell.
- The stop follows — Then the stop follows the trend.
How we tested it
Data
15m candles of 1 markets (QQQ), from 2022-11-11 to 2025-07-09. Crypto prices come from OKX perpetual futures; the 2020–2022 check uses Binance's public archive (median price gap to OKX: 0.06%). US index data comes from HistData.
Costs
Every trade pays a 0.05% taker fee per side, 2–5 basis points of slippage per side, and funding every 8 hours at each market's measured average rate. Results are in R: 1 R is the amount risked on one trade (entry to stop), so strategies with different stops compare fairly.
Versions
A rule shared online is never fully specified (which stop? which holding time? which timeframe?). So we test every reasonable reading: each combination of the settings below is one version.
Two halves
The data is split in two halves (a rising market, then a flatter one). A real edge should work in both.
Results
All 28 versions
Each bar counts versions by their average result per trade after costs (clipped to ±1 R). Green: made money; red: lost money.
The rule as sold
348 trades, 43% winners, −0.109 R per trade on average, −37.9 R in total, worst drawdown −41.6 R.
Cumulative result after costs, trade after trade.
Why “the best version” misleads
With 28 versions, some look good by luck alone. The typical version made −0.110 R per trade; the best made +0.026. If the rule had no edge at all, the spread of results would look like this anyway: the best of many random tries always looks impressive. That is why we never trust the best version until it works on data it was not chosen on.
Verify it yourself
- Write the rule exactly (below: our specification and every setting we tried).
- Get free data: Binance's public archive (data.binance.vision) has years of candles; OKX and most exchanges offer an API.
- Include costs: fees on both sides, slippage, and funding for perpetual futures.
- Count results in R (risk per trade), not in %, and look at the typical version, not the best one.
- Split your data in two and keep a part you never look at until the end.
- Compare with simply holding the market over the same days.
Our exact specification (the lab's own words, in English)
New York open, side of the 12 EMA: one trade per US weekday, direction set by the first candle. What it does: on the candle that contains the New York stock-market open (09:30 America/New_York, i.e. 13:30 UTC in US summer time and 14:30 UTC in winter), it looks at that candle's close. Close above the `ema_len` EMA -> long; close below -> short. Mondays to Fridays only (US holidays are not skipped). Protective stop at stop_mult x the average daily range (14 days), optional target at target_r x the stop distance (0 = none), and a time stop after hold_bars. Source: QUANTLAB | Algorithmic Trading (quant_labde), Instagram reel, Oct 2026: "We wait for the first five-minute candle after the New York Open. Above the 12 EMA, we go long. Below it, we go short." Traded on NAS100 with "automatic trailing stops"; no stop, target or trailing rule given. Adaptations (idea only, no code copied): - Our smallest candle is 15m, so the signal candle is the 09:30-09:45 ET candle, not 09:30-09:35. On 1h/4h/1d data it is the candle that contains 09:30 ET (on 1d that is every weekday). - The video gives no initial stop. We use stop_mult x average daily range. - The video exits with an undefined trailing stop; our engine has none, so exits are the fixed stop, an optional R-multiple target and a time stop. The grid spans 4 h to 14 days because the video's third trade was still open over the weekend, and K-006 favours longer holds. - US daylight-saving dates are computed from ts with integer arithmetic (second Sunday of March to first Sunday of November), because date helpers are not allowed in strategy code. Close to retired ideas: it is short-horizon EMA momentum. What is new is only the time-of-day anchor (the US cash open).
Settings tried
| Setting | Values |
|---|---|
ema_len | 12 |
stop_mult | 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 |
target_r | 0.0 |
hold_bars | 384, 96 |
exit_trail | 1, 2, be, off, step |
Settings of the version shown
ema_len | 12 |
stop_mult | 1.0 |
target_r | 0.0 |
hold_bars | 96 |
exit_trail | 1 |
Download every trade of the version shown (CSV, 348 rows)
Limitations
- A backtest is not live trading: fills, outages and your own discipline differ.
- We test the rule as written; a trader's discretion is not testable.
- Markets change. A rule that failed here could work elsewhere, and the reverse.
- Costs depend on your exchange and size; ours are typical retail perpetual-futures costs.
Questions
Did you include fees?
Yes: fees, slippage and funding on every trade, from real exchange schedules.
Maybe it works on another timeframe?
We tested several timeframes and holding times: see “Settings tried”. The result does not depend on one choice.
Maybe it works with better risk management?
We tried stops of different widths, targets, trailing stops and partial exits. Risk management changes the shape of the results, not the sign of the edge.
Why should I trust you?
You should not: verify. The rule, every setting and every trade are on this page.
Does this mean nobody makes money with it?
Some traders will, by skill elsewhere or by luck. This test only says the rule itself does not give an edge after costs.
Disclaimer
Educational content based on historical backtests. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results. Trading leveraged products can lose more than you invest.