# Backtestd

> Independent backtest lab. We code the trading strategies people share online (moving averages, RSI, fair value gaps, Ichimoku, breakouts…), test every reasonable version on years of real market data with fees, slippage and funding, compare with simply holding the market and re-test on data the strategy never saw. Every number, setting and trade is published. No signals, no affiliate links, not financial advice.

Languages: English (https://backtestd.com/en/), French (https://backtestd.com/fr/), Spanish (https://backtestd.com/es/). Each test has a Markdown version (replace the trailing slash with .md). Data files are CC BY 4.0: cite "Backtestd — backtestd.com".

## Tests

- [Fair value gap (FVG) backtest: 772 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/fair-value-gap-fvg-tested.md): No edge after costs. No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 772 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 50% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).
- [Moving-average trend following backtest: 1249 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/moving-average-trend-following-tested.md): No edge after costs. No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 1249 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 14% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).
- [New York open · 12 EMA on Nasdaq backtest: 28 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/ny-open-12-ema-nasdaq-tested.md): No edge after costs. No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 28 versions of it on 1 market from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 96% of the versions lost money. The few positive versions are what luck alone produces when you try many settings.
- [RSI pullback in a trend backtest: 1448 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/rsi-pullback-in-a-trend-tested.md): Not proven. Not proven: it passed some checks, not all of them. We coded the rule, tested 1448 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 75% of the versions lost money. The best version still beat the market on older data (2020–2022), but one good period is not proof.
- [Ichimoku cloud backtest: 450 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/ichimoku-cloud-tested.md): Too weak to trade. Not reliably: the edge is too weak to trade. We coded the rule, tested 450 versions of it on 36 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 7% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).
- [Time-series momentum backtest: 468 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/time-series-momentum-tested.md): No edge after costs. No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 468 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 47% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).
- [Channel breakout (Donchian / turtle) backtest: 2037 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/channel-breakout-donchian-turtle-tested.md): Too weak to trade. Not reliably: the edge is too weak to trade. We coded the rule, tested 2037 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 26% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).
- [52-week-high anchoring backtest: 832 versions tested (2022–2025)](https://backtestd.com/en/52-week-high-anchoring-tested.md): Not proven. Not proven: it passed some checks, not all of them. We coded the rule, tested 832 versions of it on 24 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 1% of the versions lost money. The best version still beat the market on older data (2020–2022), but one good period is not proof.

## Lessons (why most traders lose)

- [The market](https://backtestd.com/en/why-traders-lose-market/)
- [Fees](https://backtestd.com/en/why-traders-lose-fees/)
- [Tight stops](https://backtestd.com/en/why-traders-lose-tight-stops/)
- [Doubling down](https://backtestd.com/en/why-traders-lose-doubling/)
- [The best backtest](https://backtestd.com/en/why-traders-lose-best-of-n/)

## Method and trust

- [How we test](https://backtestd.com/en/method/)
- [About Backtestd](https://backtestd.com/en/about/)
- [Risk & transparency](https://backtestd.com/en/risk/)

## Optional

- [Full text of every test](https://backtestd.com/llms-full.txt)
- [Legal notice](https://backtestd.com/fr/legal/)