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The market: why traders lose
Posted 2026-10-26
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Full method, every setting and every trade →
What the video says
Why do most traders lose money? Lesson 1: the market.
R is what you risk on one trade: minus 1 R means you lost your stake once. Across millions of simulated trades, buying while Bitcoin rose made plus 0.11 R per trade. Selling made minus 0.09.
When Bitcoin went sideways, both sides were close to zero. And when it fell, even shorts lost 0.10 R per trade. Most of the profit was the market's rise, not the strategy.
If your strategy only works when the market rises, you own the market, not an edge. What to do instead: compare every result with simply holding the market over the same days.
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
Backtest results, not financial advice.