Part 2: the test
Doubling down: a higher win rate, less profit
Posted 2026-10-29
Following up on the previous video: in our backtest, doubling down instead of taking the stop raised the win rate from 33% to 46%, but profit per trade fell from plus 0.15 R to plus 0.02 R. A higher win rate did not mean more profit.
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Full method, every setting and every trade →
The other part: Doubling down, explained: it wins 99% of the time. That's the trap.
What the video says
Following up on the previous video: does winning more often mean earning more? In our backtest, doubling down instead of taking the stop raised the win rate from 33% to 46%. But that was only part of the result.
These results compare the median version of each approach. A version uses the same rule with different settings, such as stops and holding times. R is the amount risked on a trade. Profit per trade fell from plus 0.15 R when taking the stop to plus 0.02 R when doubling down. The win rate rose, but profit per trade fell.
Win rate tells you how often you win, but not how much you win or lose. In this test, a higher win rate came with less profit per trade. Decide your maximum loss before entering a trade, and stick to it. Have you ever doubled down to avoid taking a loss?
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
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Backtest results, not financial advice.