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Troy horse ICT method: we tested 64 versions
Posted 2026-10-30
Troy horse ICT method: 64 versions tested on 30 crypto perpetual futures, 10 stock indices, 12 currency pairs and 3 commodities over 2.7 years, fees included. 0% made money.
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What the video says
Troy horse ICT method. 100% of the 64 versions we tested lost money. Yet on the chart, it looks perfect.
Before you risk a cent on it, here's how it really did. We tested it on 30 crypto perpetual futures, 10 stock indices, 12 currency pairs and 3 commodities over 2.7 years, fees included.
First, the rule. London close stays inside the New York morning range. Then trade the retest of a fair value gap toward the morning low.
A version is the same rule with different settings, like where the stop or the target goes. Here is the best of all 64 versions. 5743 trades, 51% winners. All markets together. Each square is one trade: green won, red lost.
R is what you risk on one trade: minus 1 R means you lost your stake once. We split the test in two periods. From November 2022 to March 2024: minus 0.08 R per trade. From March 2024 to July 2025: minus 0.09.
Now kind by kind, the typical version. Crypto perpetual futures: minus 0.09 R per trade. Stock indices: minus 0.22. Currency pairs: minus 0.11. Commodities: minus 0.17. Not one version made money on any of them.
Even against simply holding the market over the same days, it does minus 0.16 R per trade. There is no profit to explain. Then we ran that exact version on older crypto data it had never seen, 2020 to 2022. Against the market: minus 0.18 R per trade. Still nothing.
This trap has a name: hindsight. On a finished chart, you can draw any pattern over a move that already happened. Only a rule written before the move, tested on hundreds of days, tells you anything.
The answer. No reliable edge.
What this means for you: only trust a rule written before the move, then tested on hundreds of days. Which strategy should we test next? Write it in the comments.
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
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Backtest results, not financial advice.