Part 2: the test
Moving-average trend following: we tested 1249 versions
Posted 2026-10-26
Moving-average trend following: 1249 versions tested on 41 markets over 2.7 years, fees included. 86% made money.
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Full method, every setting and every trade →
The other part: What is a golden cross? (part 1)
What the video says
Moving-average trend following. Everyone shares it. We tested 1249 versions on 41 markets, fees included.
The rule: Hold long while a fast average is above a slow one, short when below.
Here is the best of all 1249 versions. 40 trades, 25% winners.
First half of the data: plus 2.21 R per trade. Second half: plus 3.14.
Against simply holding the market over the same days, it adds plus 1.93 R per trade, but that could still be luck. Then we ran that exact version on older data it had never seen, 2020 to 2022. Against the market: minus 0.15 R per trade. The edge did not survive.
Five checks before you trust a backtest. Profit after costs: passed. Works in both halves: passed. Beats holding the market: failed. Works on older data (2020–22): failed. The typical version wins: passed. 3 out of 5. A real edge passes all 5. Verdict: no reliable edge.
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
Backtest results, not financial advice.