Part 2: the test
Ichimoku cloud: we tested 450 versions
Posted 2026-10-31
Ichimoku cloud: 450 versions tested on 29 crypto perpetual futures over 2.7 years, fees included. 93% made money.
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Full method, every setting and every trade →
The other part: How does the Ichimoku cloud work? (part 1)
What the video says
Ichimoku cloud. 93% of the 450 versions we tested made money. Too good to be true? And the best one hides a trap.
Yesterday: the rule. Today: the proof. Before you risk a cent on it, here's how it really did. We tested it on 29 crypto perpetual futures over 2.7 years, fees included.
Quick reminder of the rule. A trend system: price above the cloud and the lines crossing up: buy.
A version is the same rule with different settings, like where the stop or the target goes. Here is the best of all 450 versions. 114 trades, 28% winners. Each square is one trade: green won, red lost.
R is what you risk on one trade: minus 1 R means you lost your stake once. We split the test in two periods. From November 2022 to March 2024: plus 0.90 R per trade. From March 2024 to July 2025: plus 1.20. Skill, or luck?
Against simply holding the market over the same days, it adds plus 0.35 R per trade, but that could still be luck. Then we ran that exact version on older data it had never seen, 2020 to 2022. It still beat the market by plus 1.01 R per trade, but not reliably.
The trap here is luck. A small edge over a few hundred trades can appear by chance alone.
The answer. Too weak to trade.
What this means for you: ask how many trades it took, and whether chance alone could explain it. Which strategy should we test next? Write it in the comments.
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
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Backtest results, not financial advice.