Part 2: the test
Fair value gap (FVG): we tested 772 versions
Posted 2026-10-27
Fair value gap (FVG): 772 versions tested on 24 markets over 2.7 years, fees included. 50% made money.
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Full method, every setting and every trade →
The other part: What is a Fair Value Gap? (part 1)
What the video says
Part two. Yesterday you saw how it works. Does fair value gap (FVG) make money? We tested it on 24 markets over 2.7 years, fees included. Here is the answer.
Quick reminder of the rule. The rule: A 3-candle price gap left by a strong candle; enter when price comes back into it.
A version is the same rule with other settings: stops, holding times, timeframes. Now all 772 versions together. 50% of them lost money after fees.
Here is the best of all 772 versions. 76 trades, 45% winners. Each square is one trade: green won, red lost.
R is what you risk on one trade: minus 1 R means you lost your stake once. First half of the data: plus 0.96 R per trade. Second half: plus 0.73.
But is that skill, or luck? In our main data, the best version even beat the market. But it is the best of 772: some had to look good by luck. Then we ran that exact version on older data it had never seen, 2020 to 2022. Against the market: minus 0.21 R per trade. The edge did not survive.
The answer. No reliable edge.
Every number and the full method are on backtestd dot com. Follow for the next test.
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Backtest results, not financial advice.