# SMC golden zone (Fibonacci) backtest: 432 versions tested (2022–2025)

Source: https://backtestd.com/en/smc-golden-zone-fibonacci-tested/  
Published 2026-10-27 · updated 2026-10-27 · Backtestd (Thomas Jamais)

## Does SMC golden zone (Fibonacci) work?

No, not in our test. We coded the rule, tested 432 versions of it on 42 markets from 2022 to 2025, fees, slippage and funding included. 100% of the versions lost money. The best version did not survive older data it had never seen (2020–2022).

## Key facts

- **Versions tested**: 432
- **Markets**: 42
- **Period**: 2022-11-10 → 2025-07-09
- **Candles**: 15m
- **Costs**: fees, slippage and funding on every trade
- **Versions that lost money**: 100%
- **Verdict**: No edge after costs

## The rule people share

After a CHoCH and a BOS, buy the pullback into the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone. Stop just below, target the 1.272 extension.

## Why “the best version” misleads

With 432 versions, some look good by luck alone. The typical version made -0.170 R per trade; the best made +0.005. If the rule had no edge at all, the spread of results would look like this anyway: the best of many random tries always looks impressive. That is why we never trust the best version until it works on data it was not chosen on.

## Limitations

- A backtest is not live trading: fills, outages and your own discipline differ.
- We test the rule as written; a trader's discretion is not testable.
- Markets change. A rule that failed here could work elsewhere, and the reverse.
- Costs depend on your exchange and size; ours are typical retail perpetual-futures costs.

## Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0)

- Trades: https://backtestd.com/data/smc-golden-zone-fibonacci-tested-trades.csv
- Every number: https://backtestd.com/data/smc-golden-zone-fibonacci-tested.json
- Method: https://backtestd.com/en/method/

Cite as: Backtestd, "SMC golden zone (Fibonacci) backtest: 432 versions tested (2022–2025)", 2026-10-27, https://backtestd.com/en/smc-golden-zone-fibonacci-tested/

_Educational content based on historical backtests. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results. Trading leveraged products can lose more than you invest._